RESILIENCE SCORECARD OF CHANGUNARAYAN MUNICIPALITY (2024)

INTRODUCTION

Changunarayan Municipality is the largest among the four municipalities in Bhaktapur District of Bagmati Province and is part of the Kathmandu Valley’s urban agglomeration. It covers an area of 69.98 sq. km, divided into nine wards, with Ward 5 being the largest (9.6 sq. km) and Ward 3 the smallest (3.02 sq. km). The altitude ranges from 1,372 to 2,191 meters. As of the 2021 census, it has a population of 88,083, a population density of 1,399/km², and an annual population growth rate of 4.1% (2011-2021). Recent studies have highlighted climate change as an additional stressor impacting local development and livelihoods.

 

Changunarayan temple located at Changunarayan municipality.

In the annual risk assessments of Changunarayan municipality conducted by ISET-N from 2022 to 2024 utilizing UNDRR’s urban resilience tool, the municipality achieved a composite score of 58% (82 out of 141 possible points).  This represents an improvement from previous year’s assessment. However, the recent flood event underscores the urgent need to enhance preparedness measures, particularly given the increasing intensity of natural hazards in the region.

The scorecard used for the assessment is developed by United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) in 1999. UNDRR (formerly UNISDR) is part of the United Nations Secretariat, and it supports the implementation & review of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Making Cities Resilient (MCR) is one of the initiatives taken by UNDRR to realize different goals and targets under the Sendai Framework. The scorecard developed by MCR campaign is structured around UNISDR’s Ten Essentials for making cities resilient. The Ten Essentials for Making Cities Resilient offer broad coverage of the many issues cities need to address to become more disaster resilient. Essentials 1-3 cover governance and financial capacity, Essentials 4-8 cover the many dimensions of planning and disaster preparation and Essentials 9-10 cover the disaster response itself and post-event recovery.

 

STUDY FINDINGS

  1. Essential 01- ORGANIZE FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE:

The study indicates consistency in framework adoption and the presence of a multi-agency mechanism which provide a good base. Also the study shows improvement in resilience integration which is a key positive development. This indicates a move towards embedding resilience within the city’s operations, rather than treating it as a separate concern.

Recommendations:

  1. Integrate disaster risk reduction measures in future plans and strategies in accordance with the Sendai Framework, addressing all 10 needs for a resilient city.
  2. Strengthen the disaster risk reduction unit by focusing on resource management and promotion. Coordinate with private and non-government sectors and arrange additional budgets to enhance municipal resources.
  3. Empower concerned wards to implement disaster risk reduction programs and allocate funds as needed. This will facilitate resource mobilization and enhance ward-level responsibility.
  1. Essential 02- IDENTIFY, UNDERSTAND, AND USE CURRENT AND FUTURE RISK SCENARIOS:

The study shows a decline in the score of hazard identification in the recent year 2024 indicating a potential weakening of the city’s grasp of its hazard landscapes. Similarly, shared risk understanding and risk scenarios also decrease, suggesting a breakdown in communication and coordination among key stakeholders and a decline in the city’s ability to comprehensively assess its vulnerabilities. However, understanding of cascading failures and hazard maps remain consistent throughout the period, indicating some stability in these aspects.

Overall, the city appears to be regressing in its ability to understand and prepare for potential risks. This decline warrants immediate attention and analysis to identify the underlying causes and implement corrective measures. It is crucial to strengthen collaboration among stakeholders, improve data collection and analysis, and invest in updating risk assessments and hazard maps to enhance the city’s resilience to future challenges.

Recommendations:

  1. Inform all areas within the municipality about local problems and crises. Formulate and implement plans with mutual understanding among service providers. Coordinate with all units to advance disaster risk reduction.
  2. Evaluate disaster risk in every ward and locality, create visible maps, and keep them accessible to everyone.
  3. Identify and develop programs to raise disaster risk awareness among the underprivileged sections of society.

 

  1. Essential 03- STRENGTHEN FINANCIAL CAPABILITY FOR RESILIENCE:

The city shows a mixed picture in its efforts to strengthen financial capacity for resilience.  While there is a slight improvement in understanding funding sources in 2024, the scores for dedicated budget and incentives for resilience remain stagnant throughout the period. This suggests a lack of progress in securing a consistent financial foundation for disaster risk reduction initiatives.

More concerning is the decline in insurance coverage in 2024. This indicates a potential reduction in the city’s ability to manage financial risks associated with disasters, leaving it more vulnerable to economic shocks.

Overall, the city needs to prioritize strengthening its financial capacity for resilience.

Recommendations:

  1. Increase awareness about insurance to extend coverage to all areas and populations within the municipality. Implement subsidized insurance programs and organize events to highlight the importance and benefits of insurance.
  2. Promote the significance of resilience by conducting special programs to educate every locality and family within the municipality, incorporating resilience into all development and construction initiatives.

 

  1. Essential 04- PURSUE RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND DESIGN:

The city demonstrates a mixed performance in pursuing resilient urban development.  Positively, land use planning shows improvement as time progresses. This suggests increasing consideration of resilience factors in land use decisions.

However, scores for promoting resilience in new developments, building codes and standards, and their application remain stagnant across all three years. This indicates a lack of progress in integrating resilience into the city’s urban development practices and enforcing necessary regulations.

Recommendations:

  1. Regularly enforce building code compliance and update standards in an easily understood language.
  2. Strictly implement all new development projects and smart city initiatives.

 

  1. Essential 05- SAFEGUARD NATURAL BUFFERS TO ENHANCE THE PROTECTIVE FUNCTIONS OFFERED BY NATURAL CAPITAL:

The city displays a consistent lack of progress in safeguarding natural buffers.  Scores across all three categories (awareness of natural assets, green and blue infrastructure integration, and managing ecosystem services beyond borders) regress in each succeeding years.

This decline is concerning and suggests a disconnect between the city’s development practices and the vital role of natural ecosystems in providing protection and enhancing resilience. By taking proactive steps to safeguard its natural buffers, the city can enhance its resilience, mitigate risks, and improve the overall well-being of its citizens. Areas like data sharing and training materials availability show some improvement.

Recommendations:

  1. Regularly update building codes and standards. Ensure development works like roads, wells, and buildings contribute to green zones and water source restoration.
  2. Implement plans for proper management of forests, streams, and waste by coordinating with neighboring municipalities through agreements.

 

  1. Essential 06- STRENGTHEN INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY FOR RESILIENCE:

The city presents a mixed picture in its efforts to strengthen institutional capacity for resilience. While some areas show improvement, others stagnate or even decline. Access to skills and expertise remains consistent at throughout the period. Whereas the score for Knowledge exchange remains consistent, indicating a continued effort to learn from others.

Areas like public awareness and education and training coverage remain consistent throughout the years suggesting a need for more effective communication and outreach strategies and a significant gap in building capacity across different sectors. To enhance its institutional capacity for resilience, the city should focus on improving public awareness and education, expanding training coverage and strengthening existing efforts.

Recommendations:

  1. Develop a training course that includes resilience information, ensuring it is presented in simple language for all areas of the municipality.

 

  1. Essential 07- UNDERSTAND AND STRENGTHEN SOCIETAL CAPACITY FOR RESILIENCE:

The city shows limited but positive progress in strengthening societal resilience. Community organization participation improves in 2024, indicating increased involvement of community groups in resilience efforts. Citizen engagement and communication also improve in 2024, suggesting more effective communication and engagement strategies related to DRR.

Whereas Training for vulnerable populations remains consistently, indicating a persistent gap in providing targeted training to those most at risk. Business continuity planning also remains consistent throughout the period, suggesting a lack of progress in encouraging businesses to prepare for disruptions.

To further enhance societal capacity for resilience, the city should focus on prioritizing training for vulnerable populations, promoting business continuity planning and building on positive trends.

Recommendations:

  1. Develop a plan to provide regular disaster risk reduction training to marginalized sections and communities in society.
  2. Collect and update data on the number of people employed or self-employed after receiving business training from the municipality.

 

  1. Essential 08- INCREASE INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE:

The city shows a mixed performance in increasing infrastructure resilience. Critical infrastructure plan and protective infrastructure design show consistent score, indicating a stable approach to planning and design. Healthcare capacity shows improvement in 2024, suggesting increased preparedness for medical needs in disasters.

Essential services loss remains consistent indicating a continued risk of significant disruption to essential services under disaster scenarios. Energy infrastructure loss, transport infrastructure loss, and overall service loss all show a concerning decline in 2024, highlighting increased vulnerability in worst-case scenarios. Education structures risk increases in 2024, suggesting a growing threat to educational facilities. First responder equipment remains consistent indicating a persistent lack of sufficient equipment and backup.

Recommendations:

  1. To restore electricity and communication swiftly during disasters, it is advisable to keep generators, including solar energy options, ready at all times. Ensure critical service providers, such as hospitals, water supply facilities, and fire engines, have access to these alternative energy sources.

 

  1. Essential 09- ENSURE EFFECTIVE DISASTER RESPONSE:

Early Warning System   showed improvement in 2024, indicating enhanced reach of early warning systems. Disaster Management Plan also showed improvement in 2024, suggesting a more comprehensive and robust plan. Staffing Capacity, Equipment and Supplies, and Drills and Practices remained consistent throughout the period, indicating a stable level of preparedness in these areas. Post-Event Support showed significant improvement in 2024, suggesting a strengthened capacity to provide essential services after a disaster. Emergency Operations Center showed improvement in 2024, indicating enhanced coordination and automation in emergency response.

Overall, the city demonstrates a positive trajectory in improving its disaster response capabilities. The significant improvements in early warning systems, disaster management planning, post-event support, and emergency operations center functionality are particularly encouraging. However, maintaining and further enhancing these improvements, along with addressing any remaining gaps, will be crucial for ensuring continued preparedness and effective response to future disasters.

Recommendations:

  1. Enhance disaster response capabilities by leveraging the assistance of the army, police, and non-governmental organizations. Train additional personnel and equip disaster response teams in each ward with necessary resources and training.
  2. Strengthen existing emergency centers by storing essential supplies such as food, medicines, and water. Establish temporary emergency centers, identify safe areas in each ward, and inform residents accordingly.

 

  1. Essential 10- EXPEDITE RECOVERY AND BUILD BACK BETTER:

Unfortunately, the city shows no improvement in either area across the three years.  Scores for both post-disaster recovery strategy and post-disaster assessment remain stagnant.

The consistency in post-disaster recovery strategy suggests the absence of a comprehensive plan that integrates economic, social, and other relevant factors into recovery efforts.  This could lead to fragmented and ineffective recovery, potentially exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. Similarly, the static score for post-disaster assessment indicates a possible lack of systematic learning from past events. While assessments may be conducted, they may not be effectively utilized to inform future rebuilding efforts, leading to missed opportunities for improvement.

Recommendations:

  1. Continue ongoing post-disaster recovery and rehabilitation efforts by implementing a more convenient, shorter, and quicker process, building a foundation to become stronger than ever before.